NOAA Releases Winter Outlook, Still Expects El Niño to Dominate U.S. Weather

Dennis Mersereau · 10/15/15 02:39PM

This morning, NOAA released its long-range temperature and precipitation outlook for this winter and the verdict is that we’re on track for a strange season. Basically, El Niño’s gonna El Niño, with a decent chance of the stereotypical wintry disruptions one would expect in the U.S. during one of these events.

Cooler Weather on Track for Eastern U.S. Beginning Next Week

Dennis Mersereau · 07/30/15 03:55PM

Just in time for the beginning of August, the jet stream is undergoing a readjustment that will bring a noticeable change in the weather over the United States for the next couple of weeks. The shift should bring cooler weather to much of the eastern U.S., while the West Coast stays as hot and dry as ever.

Canada Might Gift Us With Breathable Air for the First Week of August

Dennis Mersereau · 07/24/15 11:45AM

Summer’s death grip on the United States might loosen somewhat as we forge through the end of the month, as weather models are pointing to the possibility of the jet stream dragging down some of that cool Canadian air we all know and love (when it’s not January) just in time for the first week of August. Ahh.

Stop Asking Weatherpeople Exactly When It'll Start Raining at Your House

Dennis Mersereau · 06/04/15 03:21PM

Weather forecasts have come a long way over the past couple of decades. Meteorologists can give you a deadly accurate five-day forecast today, when forecasting the weather beyond a day was a feat 30 years ago. Forecasts today are accurate to a fault: people expect too much, and get angry and disappointed when their friendly local weatherperson can’t deliver.

Here's What El Niño Could Mean for Summer Weather in the United States

Dennis Mersereau · 04/30/15 03:52PM

As temperatures warm up and the school year winds down for kids across the country, people are eager for summer to arrive before spring has a chance to set in. Everyone wants to know what kind of weather we’ll have this summer, but there’s one factor that could have some consequences: El Niño.

A Few 'Significant' Tornadoes Possible Across Central U.S. This Evening

Dennis Mersereau · 04/08/15 03:46PM

Things are going to get interesting in a hurry across the central part of the country this evening as severe thunderstorms rapidly develop in the moist, unstable air pumping in from the tropics. These dangerous thunderstorms even have the potential to produce a few tornadoes, some of which could be strong and stay on the ground for a while.

Your Weather App Sucks

Dennis Mersereau · 04/07/15 03:01PM

Do you get your weather from a weather app? The number of weather apps available for smartphones and tablets grows by the day, but they're not all equal. Your weather app likely sucks—in fact, some apps are so wrong that you're better off looking out the window. Here's how to remedy the situation.

A Few Tornadoes Are Possible Today From Tennessee to Washington D.C. 

Dennis Mersereau · 04/03/15 02:01PM

Today is the final day of a week-long severe weather outbreak that's produced hundreds of reports of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes across the central United States. The threat for severe thunderstorms is shifting east into more heavily populated areas. A few tornadoes are possible today from western Tennessee through the Washington D.C./Baltimore metro areas.

Winter Is Just About Dead, Except in the Northeast, Sorry About That

Dennis Mersereau · 04/01/15 03:43PM

Welcome to April! The next month looks like it'll be interesting, with warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the country, except the Northeast, where winter clings like tangy marinara to a plate of cold pasta. Sorry. This is no joke, either—we don't play those games. Nature really does just hate you.

Dennis Mersereau · 03/27/15 08:59PM

After Record Warmth, U.S. Dips Back Into Winter's Stubborn Pattern

Dennis Mersereau · 03/18/15 03:04PM

It was downright gorgeous across the United States and Canada earlier this week. Dozens of towns from Texas to Saskatchewan set record highs during the brief warm-up. Unfortunately, March's gotta act like March, and we've slumped back into that weird winter pattern of a warm west and cool east.

Maps: Parts of N.Y. Could See Five Feet of Lake Effect Snow by Tomorrow

Dennis Mersereau · 01/09/15 04:06PM

A nasty lake effect snow event is cranking up over western New York this afternoon, threatening to dump several feet of snow on communities from Buffalo to Watertown. Towns south of Buffalo could dig out from three feet of snow from the system, while eastern Lake Ontario could see up to five feet of snow in 36 hours.

East Coast Storm Could Bring Two Feet of Snow or Rain or Bright Sunshine

Dennis Mersereau · 12/15/14 03:10PM

The weather models are hinting at a potentially significant winter storm in the eastern United States this weekend, but they're vague on the small details like "what will happen?" Washington D.C., for instance, could see either one or fourteen inches of snow, or rain, or sunshine. Welcome to winter!

Dennis Mersereau · 12/04/14 12:31PM

FiveThirtyEight published a piece this morning exploring which parts of the country have "unpredictable" weather based on how much day-to-day weather deviates from climatology. Jason Samenow at the Capital Weather Gang sums up my thoughts perfectly. (See also.)

Hot in December? You're Probably Not Reading These Maps Correctly

Dennis Mersereau · 12/02/14 04:59PM

One of the biggest (and most welcome) weather stories today is that a warm-up is slated to descend over the United States during the next two weeks. The maps we use to show the possibility of above-average temperatures are being misread by much of the public, and that's a problem.

In Defense of Public Opinion Polls

Dennis Mersereau · 11/05/14 02:25PM

People lie. People say they'll do one thing and then do another. People have free will. Predicting what people will do is harder than predicting the weather. Those who religiously track political polling found this out the hard way last night.