Schrödinger's Nor'easter

The explosive (hype) bomb of a nor'easter that's slated to form in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean in a couple of days continues to teeter on the edge of being no big deal and a decent snowstorm for heavily populated areas along the I-95 corridor, but it's leaning more heavily towards not being that big of a deal for that many people.

The storm is expected to rapidly develop into a pretty impressive low pressure system as it skirts by the coast of New England on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the big question is who is going to get snow and how much? That still depends on its track.

As of now, it looks like the storm will move far enough out to sea that it won't produce too much snow along much of the eastern seaboard. The biggest threat for heavy (emphasis on heavy) snow is across the part of southeastern New England that "juts out" into the Atlantic, so to speak — eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The Boston NWS office published this in their forecast discussion early this morning, regarding the chance for snow:

HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT WE MAY NEED WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND WITH ADJACENT ADVISORIES TOWARDS THE INTERIOR. AGAIN...STILL AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

Snow is certainly possible in other areas along the coast, but this is probably the most likely area for the heaviest snow.

If the storm moves further out to sea, less of its precipitation will impact land, and the best snow will fall over the immediate coastal areas in New England — and even there it won't be that much (likely low single digits) if the track is further east than expected.

If the storm defies current thinking and jogs a few dozen miles to the west, which is unlikely, it could turn into a major snow event for the I-95 corridor from Washington to Portland.

In summary: Atlantic Canada is screwed, snow is possible in coastal areas, and the biggest risk for heavy snow is likely confined to coastal areas of southeastern New England. Unless it isn't, of course. (But it probably is).

How's that for a forecast?

[Image via TwisterData]