Models Showing a Potential Nor'easter Next Week

For the past few days, numerous weather models have signaled at the possibility of a significant nor'easter sometime early next week that could bring snow to places from North Carolina to Canada. At this time, it's still a very fluid situation with lots of uncertainties, but there is enough risk right now to warrant mentioning.

Last night's run of the GFS model shows a pretty potent nor'easter skirting east of New England on Tuesday and Wednesday before slamming into Atlantic Canada with strong winds and very heavy snowfall. Based on that one run of one weather model, the heaviest precipitation would be mostly out to sea and only eastern New England (around Boston/Cape Cod) would see the worst of the snow.

Models Showing a Potential Nor'easter Next Week

The question right now isn't whether or not the system really will develop, but rather how strong it'll be and what track it will take. A stronger low pressure system that tracks closer to the east coast would bring major snowfall to heavily populated areas from the Appalachians to the I-95 corridor. A system that tracks further out to sea would produce a much smaller impact on the east coast. The track is going to be key with this system, and that's also the biggest uncertainty right now.

Last night's forecast from the Weather Prediction Center brought the nor'easter fairly close to the coast, giving better chances for snowfall farther inland.

Models Showing a Potential Nor'easter Next Week

This is always worth a mention — as hoax forecasts have been a huge issue in the past few years (especially this year), beware of any forecasts you see on social media that originate from a sketchy source. Many weather pages are run by high school students or hoaxers who generate fake, overblown forecasts with the purpose of gaining likes and shares to grow the popularity of their pages. When a forecast looks too big or outlandish to be true, it probably is. Be prudent. Check with your local National Weather Service office or other official sources (like local stations or even weather.com) to verify if those doomsday forecasts have any veracity.

That being said, there is a chance for a significant storm next week. If you live on the east coast, keep an eye on official forecasts this weekend to see how the models evolve the system. Significant storms this late in the year aren't unheard of, especially with cold air locked into place.

[Images via NCEP / InstantWeatherMaps.com / WPC]